2025 – A Risk-Based Outlook for Critical Technologies

Claudia’s outlook for 2024 proved to be quite accurate. So what does she foresee for 2025? This year, she will focus on critical technologies, as they will play an especially significant role in 2025. These technologies are subject to intense, ongoing competition between states and can be decisive in war, pandemics, and periods of economic stress. They have the potential to turn situations around and unlock future opportunities, highlighting the deep connection between critical technologies and innovation. The demand for such innovations has never been higher. In essence, critical technologies will shape the landscape of 2025.

Below, Claudia provides an overview of three critical technologies and explains their high relevance:

I. AI technologies

II. Biotechnologies

III. Space technologies.

She also discusses why we should focus on them in 2025. This does not imply that other critical technologies will be less important, but rather that the following three require more – or different – ​​attention from civil society. Claudia includes information on why this focus may be necessary.

I. AI technologies

1. Outlook

In 2025, AI technologies will be at the forefront of groundbreaking research and development. Many of these innovations are likely to remain classified for national security reasons. Additionally, AI technologies will unfortunately deepen Europe’s reliance on non-European countries. However, challenging experiences will ultimately shift perspectives and drive significant changes.

2. What are AI technologies?

Historically, “Artificial Intelligence (AI)” is a field of research whose goal is essentially to make computers mimic human thinking and learning. The term “AI” does not describe a specific product or technology, but rather a family of software technologies related to the aforementioned field of research. The term “AI technologies” is much broader. For the European Commission, “AI technologies” include “AI (software), high-performance computing, cloud and edge computing, and data analytics (…)” (cf. Commission Recommendation of 3 October 2023 (C(2023) 6689 final)).

3. Why are AI technologies critical?

According to the European Commission, “AI technologies have a wide range of dual-use applications and are crucial in particular for processing large amounts of data and making decisions or predictions based on this data-driven analysis. These technologies have huge transformative potential in this regard” (cf. Commission Recommendation of 3 October 2023 (C(2023) 6689 final)). With the mastery of AI technologies comes a lot of power – power that is being fought over now and in 2025.

4. How will AI technologies be relevant in 2025?

The AI ​​arms race between the USA and China (and others) will intensify. Trump expressly wants to win it:

Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton (link: https://ktslaw.com/-/media/Feature/Trump-DOI-Burgum-Announcement)

This AI arms race will further affect us in Europe since we are part of the US AI ecosystem. In addition, given the war situation in Europe, hostile measures utilizing AI technologies must be expected. Many, however, fail to envision the threats and harms that can emerge throughout the AI value chain. They focus on perceived bureaucratic hurdles instead of the real risks posed by everyday activities, such as sharing personal data on social media or heavily relying on foreign foundation model-based AI systems. These critics lack a sense of safety and security concerning the covert spread of military intelligence, surveillance, and targeting technologies by adversaries (cf. Khlaaf et al., 2024). The notion that personal data can be weaponized is beyond their comprehension.

The EU’s protective framework, largely consisting of the GDPR and the EU AI Act, is currently seen as a burden that should be minimized or discarded. In 2025, this viewpoint is likely to change, spurred by significant damage that will highlight the vital importance of these regulations.

5. Why this could be relevant for you

In 2025, it is paramount that every organization and employee cultivates a heightened awareness regarding AI technologies. The rapidly evolving AI landscape brings both unprecedented opportunities and significant risks. Before integrating AI technologies into various facets of business operations, understanding its potential impacts on safety, security, privacy, and ethical standards is crucial.

A thorough AI risk assessment is indispensable for any organization aiming to navigate the complexities of AI technologies responsibly. This assessment also serves as the foundation for developing and maintaining a comprehensive strategy to foster EU AI Act compliance through AI Literacy, as mandated by Article 4 of the EU AI Act, which comes into effect on 2 February 2025 (learn more here and here). An AI risk assessment must specifically account for the risks associated with warfare, as war scenarios introduce complex challenges that go beyond typical business considerations. These risks necessitate specialized knowledge that is not typically covered in standard training courses and need to be updated on a regular basis.

Warfare-associated risks should serve as a compelling incentive for organizations to implement robust cybersecurity measures, irrespective of laws and legal obligations. Safeguarding the organization from harm lies at the very heart of directors’ responsibilities (find first steps here).

II. Biotechnologies

1. Outlook

In 2025, biotechnologies finally get the attention they deserve. However, preparation and perseverance will still be needed. 

2. What is “biotechnology”?

Biotechnology is the use of living organisms to create or modify products, including medicines (cf. EMA glossary).

3. Why are biotechnologies critical?

In its Commission Recommendation of October 3, 2023 (C(2023) 6689 final), the EU Commission stated: “Biotechnologies have a major enabling and transformative nature in areas such as agriculture, environment, healthcare, life science, food chains or biomanufacturing. Some biotechnologies, such as genetic engineering applied to pathogens or harmful compounds produced by genetic modification of microorganisms, can have a security/military dimension, in particular when being misused.” Given this context, it is not surprising to witness a global (arms) race in the realm of biotechnology. Interestingly, the Sino-Russian cooperation in this field has largely gone unnoticed (cf. Lebedenko, 2022).

4. How will biotechnologies be relevant in 2025?

Given the increasing threat posed by circulating pathogens, biotechnologies will assume a crucial role in 2025. Biotech companies should prepare for significant challenges and opportunities.

Moreover, Europe has long been a leader in scientific research and the source of pivotal discoveries and inventions in fundamental biotechnologies that are critical to our medicines, food, and industrial processes. However, many biotech innovations originating from European research are often commercialized and achieve success outside of Europe. With global supply chain disruptions witnessed in 2024 and more expected in 2025, it is imperative that European innovations take root and evolve within Europe to ensure economic stability and resilience. In light of volatile geopolitical developments, it is essential to reduce dependency on third countries, particularly those that oppose our allies, for critical products such as active ingredients.

To address these challenges, the EU Commission will propose a European Biotech Act in 2025, as part of a broader Strategy for European Life Sciences. Given the typical duration of legislative processes, member states should proactively establish the foundational conditions for fostering more biotechnology within Europe. This includes creating sustainable financing opportunities to support local biotech developments, economic stability and resilience, and securing Europe’s leadership in this vital field.

5. Why this could be relevant for you

Biotechnology holds profound relevance for everyone, regardless of their professional background, due to its far-reaching impact on numerous aspects of daily life. However, its relevance is particularly high as follows:

From a general business perspective, there are often dependencies that might not be immediately apparent. It is wise to closely monitor trade tensions with countries such as China, given our significant reliance on them in the biotechnology sector. Understanding supply chains and identifying alternative products and suppliers in advance can provide valuable options if the need arises. By reviewing contractual arrangements early, organizations can enhance their flexibility and readiness to adapt in times of need.

Biotechnological innovations and research breakthroughs are critically important for Europe and should be explored for their potential in entrepreneurial ventures and collaborative opportunities. Given the prolonged legislative process and the pressing need to stimulate growth in biotechnology businesses within Europe, it is expected that both the EU and member states will introduce additional funding opportunities to bolster this essential sector. Universities should re-evaluate their civil clause policies, while those interested in funding should proactively consider whether they support dual-use applications, such as biotechnology applications in the defense sector.

Biotech companies should recognize their role as critical entities and enhance their protective measures, particularly in relation to AI technologies. The combination of these critical technologies holds the potential for time-sensitive breakthroughs that may attract significant interest from certain states. Therefore, it is essential for biotech companies to prioritize robust (cyber)security protocols to safeguard their innovations and maintain their competitive edge.

III. Space technologies

1. Outlook

In 2025, space technologies will be at the centre of geopolitical change. The associated threat to peace therefore requires greater investment in peaceful cooperation and space technologies for the benefit of humanity.

2. What are “space technologies”?

Space technologies encompass not only technologies utilized in space but also those that originate from space applications and can be adapted for terrestrial use.

3.  Why are space technologies critical?

Despite the Outer Space Treaty and the established framework of international space law, outer space and space technologies remain at the forefront of a terrestrial (arms) race. The reason is that outer space offers novel avenues for exerting power, access to new resources such as raw materials, and numerous methods for influencing terrestrial affairs and developments. This underscores the transformative but also inherent dual-use potential of space technologies.

4. How will space technologies be relevant in 2025?

In 2025, space technologies will become relevant for many more organizations due to their wide-ranging applications that extend beyond space exploration and have transformative impacts across numerous industries. For example, these technologies enable enhanced communication networks through satellites, more accurate weather forecasting, and efficient resource management via Earth observation. Space technologies also help to improve crisis and disaster management on Earth, since space technologies offer various valuable data and cannot be affected by floods, storms or other catastrophic environmental impacts. Additionally, they drive innovations in areas such as healthcare, material science, energy production, and autonomous systems.

In a time where humanity aims to connect and intelligent-ize everything, space technologies in combination with other critical technologies can mean power – but also vulnerability. Given the geopolitical tectonic shifts on Earth, there is a risk that national interests will affect peaceful international cooperation among states for the benefit of humanity and thus the benefits derived from it. It is therefore of great importance to support peaceful international cooperation in space in 2025 and beyond.

Given Europe’s economic situation, exploring and harnessing the benefits of space technologies will be vital for unlocking new business opportunities and economic growth. Consequently, it is imperative for businesses to acquaint themselves with space technologies and recognize the transformative potential for their business models. Lawmakers have acknowledged the significance of space technologies, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the legal landscape in 2025.